气象灾害应急管理能力评价   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

韩颖  岳贤平  崔维军 《气象科技》2011,39(2):242-246

建立气象灾害应急能力评价指标体系对增强应对气象灾害管理能力和提高灾害的应急响应能力有重要的意义。从系统理论的角度出发,基于气象灾害应急管理的特征和结构的分析,运用层次分析法原理,构建了由气象灾害预警防御能力、政府组织能力、支撑保障能力3个1级指标和15个2级指标组成的气象灾害应急管理能力的评价指标体系,可为提高气象灾害应急管理能力和防灾减灾提供科学依据。  相似文献   

南宁市蔗糖行业人工增雨服务效益调查评估     

罗伟  黄中雄 《气象研究与应用》2011,32(2):43-46

分析了南宁市种植甘蔗的气候适应性,以及降雨量与甘蔗生长、蔗茎产量及含糖量的关系,并对比分析了为南宁糖业股份有限公司所属蔗区实施人工增雨前后的甘蔗产量及蔗糖分,认为蔗糖分前后变化不大,但实施人工增雨后甘蔗产量有较显著提高,从而能获得令人满意的经济效益;在此基础上提出了做好人工增雨工作的改进思路。  相似文献   

Research on quantitative assessment of climate change risk at an urban scale: Review of recent progress and outlook of future direction     

Bin Ye  Jingjing Jiang  Junguo Liu  Yi Zheng  Nan Zhou 《Chemie der Erde / Geochemistry》2011

Cities are not only major contributors to global climate change but also stand at the forefront of climate change impact. Quantifying and assessing the risk potentially induced by climate change has great significance for cities to undertake positive climate adaptation and risk prevention. However, most of the previous studies focus on global, national or regional dimensions, only a few have attempted to examine climate change risk at an urban scale and even less in the case of a recent literature review. As a result, a quantitative assessment of climate change risk for cities remains highly challenging. To fill this gap, the article makes a critical review of the recent literature on urban-scale climate change risk assessment, and classifies them into four major categories of studies which jointly constitute a stepwise modelling chain from global climate change towards urban-scale risk assessment. On this basis, the study summarizes the updated research progresses and discusses the major challenges to be overcome for the seamless coupling of climate simulation between different scales, the reproduction of compound climate events, the incorporation of non-market and long-lasting impacts and the representation of risk transmission insides or beyond a city. Furthermore, future directions to advance quantitative assessment of urban-scale climate change risk are highlighted, with fresh insights into improving study methodology, enriching knowledge of climate change impact on city, enhancing abundance and accessibility to data, and exploring the best practice to provide city-specific climate risk service.  相似文献   

Managing expert-information uncertainties for assessing collapse susceptibility of abandoned underground structures     

Aude Nachbaur  Jérémy Rohmer 《Engineering Geology》2011,(3):166

Assessing the collapse susceptibility of abandoned cavities at a regional scale is associated with large uncertainties that are mainly related to the very nature of the phenomena, but also to the difficulty in collecting exhaustive information at such a scale on often “forgotten” structures. In this context, the expert's role is essential, because he is able to synthesize the information resulting from the inventory and from the commonly imprecise, if not vague, criteria on the basis of his experience and his knowledge of the geological, historical, economic regional context.In this article, we propose mathematical tools for representing and processing this information in order to give flexibility to this step and manage the uncertainty inherent in the expert's information. The first tool, based on the weight of evidence theory, is for managing the uncertainty due to the heterogeneous spatial distribution of the data, whereas the second tool, based on the fuzzy set theory, is for managing the imprecision and incompleteness of available data, which hinder the definition of the class boundaries of the quantitative decision criteria. Based on an appropriate representation of the uncertainty sources (related to the input data and to the expert diagnostic), we then propose a methodology that integrates the uncertainty in the final output of the collapse susceptibility assessment and provides a confidence indicator useful within the decision-making process. The proposed methodology is applied to the Arras territory in the North of France, where abandoned chalk pits (dating back to the Roman ages) and war saps located in the vicinity of the First World War front lines (i.e. covered trenches), raise both difficulties for urban planning.  相似文献   

地球化学块体理论在青海沱沱河地区铅锌资源潜力预测中的应用   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

刘长征  陈岳龙  许光  赵娟  李玥  李琳业  姬丙艳  汪元奎 《地学前缘》2011,18(5):271-282

以地球化学块体理论为基础的方法和技术确定了沱沱河铅锌地球化学块体的下限和含量级次,对沱沱河地区铅锌元素的地球化学块体进行了划分,总结了地球化学块体在空间上的分布规律,通过研究地球化学块体内部结构,追踪大型至特大型矿床可能存在的地点。根据已知地区的矿产探明储量与地球化学块体的关系,计算了该地区成矿率,预测了区内铅锌矿资源潜力,同时指出在块体内还存在巨大的寻找铅锌矿产资源的潜力。  相似文献   

BP神经网络在某油田区地下水质量评价中的应用     

吕敦玉  余楚  周爱国  周建伟  蔡鹤生 《地质科技情报》2011,30(3):108-111

对误差反向传播(error back propagation,简称BP)人工神经网络在水质评价中应用的原理进行了分析,并将其应用于地下水质量评价.首先,利用MATLAB7的神经网络工具箱,根据GB/T 14848-93《地下水质量标准》,构建出10-11-5三层结构的BP人工神经网络模型,并对某油田区的地下水水质进行了...  相似文献   

Human Health Risk Assessment Model of Organic Pollution in Groundwater: Shijiazhuang Industrial Zone     

YANG Mei  FEI Yuhong  JU Yiwen  and LI Huaqi 《《地质学报》英文版》2011,85(6):1508-1517

In this study, a risk-based management model is developed and applied to an industrial zone. The models proposed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency and Han Bing have been improved by adding a residual ratio of volatile organic compounds (VOC) after boiling and deleting the related parameters in half-life. Using this improved model, an integrated process was used to assess human health risk level in the study area. Compared with water quality analysis, the results highlight the importance of applying an integrated approach for decision making on risk levels and water protection. The results of this study demonstrated that: (1) Compared with these permissible level standards in China (GB 3838-2002) and National Primary Drinking Water Regulations of the United States, the residents’ daily life had not been affected by the groundwater in this area (except for relative bad water quality of HB3-4 and HB3-6); (2) The typical detected organic contaminants of all groundwater samples were chloroform, carbon tetrachloride, trichloroethylene and tetrachloroethene, and the pollution sources were mainly industrial sources by preliminary investigations; (3) As for groundwater, the non-carcinogenic risk values of all samples do not exceed the permissible level of 1.0 and the carcinogenic risk values are relatively lower than the permissible level of 1.00E-06 to 1.00E-04; (4) Drinking water pathway of trichloroethylene and tetrachloroethylene mainly contribute to increasing the health risk of residents’ in study areas; (5) In terms of non-carcinogenic risk and carcinogenic risk, the health risk order for drinking water pathway and dermal contact pathway was: drinking water pathway > dermal contact pathway.  相似文献   

米仓山隆起带西缘灯影组铅锌找矿潜力评价   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

杨家毅 《四川地质学报》2011,(3):326-328

较系统全面地叙述了米仓山隆起带灯影组铅锌矿成矿地质条件,为在其西缘寻找与陕西马元铅锌矿相同矿床类型矿产的找矿潜力进行了评价。  相似文献   

泉州城市表层土壤重金属的赋存形态及污染评价   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

林燕萍  胡恭任  于瑞莲  张雪琴 《矿物岩石》2011,31(2)

本文采用改进的BCR连续提取法研究泉州市区表层土壤中17种重金属的形态分布特征,并运用地积累指数Igeo法、潜在生态危害指数法、次生相与原生相分布比值法(RSP)评价土壤中重金属元素的潜在生态危害。结果表明,Li,Ti,Fe,Sc,V,As,Sb,Sn主要以残渣态存在;Cr,Ni,Cu,Zn,Bi在可氧化态中占有大比例,但仍以残渣态为主;Pb以可还原态为主;Mn,Cd,Co在可还原态和残渣态中占有较大比例。根据地累积指数法和RSP,泉州土壤受到不同程度的Sc,Co,Ni,Cu,Cd,Sb,Pb污染;潜在生态危害指数表明泉州市城区受到轻微生态危害。  相似文献   

生态系统健康：理论/概念与评价方法   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

孙燕  周杨明  张秋文  易善桢 《地球科学进展》2011,26(8):887-896

生态系统健康研究是目前生态与环境领域兴起的研究热点之一。在阅读和分析大量国内外文献的基础上,系统总结了健康和生态系统健康的概念,指出引入生态系统健康概念的目的是要得到一个重要生态指标清单,以此开展生态系统健康评价。然后,总结出生态系统健康评价的3种主要方法：指示物种法、指标体系法和指示区域法,并以代表实例阐述了此3种方...  相似文献